My earlier comments on this topic of estimation accuracy can be found in this post from two years ago:
http://alex-cycle.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/windbags.html
The study is:
Accuracy of Indirect Estimation of Power Output From Uphill Performance in Cycling
Grégoire P. Millet, Cyrille Tronche, and Frédéric Grappe
International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 2014, 9, 777-782 http://dx.doi.org/10.1123/IJSPP.2013-0320 © 2014 Human Kinetics, Inc.
Link:
http://www.fredericgrappe.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Millet.pdf
Study Conclusions:
Aerodynamic drag (affected by wind velocity and orientation, frontal area, drafting, and speed) is the most confounding factor. The mean estimated values are close to the power-output values measured by power meters, but the random error is between ±6% and ±10%. Moreover, at the power outputs (>400 W) produced by professional riders, this error is likely to be higher. This observation calls into question the validity of releasing individual values without reporting the range of random errors.
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